Perspectivas para el dólar en 2009

(ACLARACIÓN: La idea de este post no es hacer futurología, sino dar una orientación sobre la magnitud de los cambios que pueden venir en el dólar, dadas las dinámicas de precios internos y externos)

Con los datos de inflación de la mayoría de los países importantes, ya podemos decir que cerramos 2008 más caros que 2007: el tipo de cambio real multilateral argentino cayó a 1,80 en diciembre 2008, desde el 2,27 de Dic07. Todo esto a pesar de que el tipo de cambio nominal subió de 3,14 a 3,42 $/u$s (en términos reales, el dólar cayó de 1,61 a 1,43).

Pero todo eso ya es historia. Veamos ahora que puede pasar este año en materia cambiaria.

Los tres escenarios para diciembre 2009:

1) Aplacador, Tranquilizador, De la Rúa: dólar a 3,95 pesos
(a esta posibilidad parece que adhieren los principales bancos de Wall Street)
La idea es que el Gobierno se fuma la guita de la ANSES, quema reservas del BCRA, y extorsiona a más de uno, pero consigue que el dólar se mantenga relativamente “quieto” en un año electoral. El dólar estable y la deflación internacional nos ayudan a compensar por los ajustes de tarifas y cerramos con una inflación del 10% dic/dic. Así, el tipo de cambio real multilateral (TCRM) apenas sube de 1,80 a 1,86. Es decir, seguimos caros a pesar de la recesión, entonces nos compramos otro quilombo a futuro.
Conclusión: No empieza la Carrera Nominal => Se posterga para 2010

2) Componedor, Reordenador, la ilusión de algunos: dólar a 4,8-5,1 pesos
(a esta posibilidad adhieren varios economistas argentinos, pero prefieren no hablar públicamente)
Este es el escenario voluntarista de lo que “debería ser”. El Gobierno maneja un ajuste muy gradual del tipo de cambio (onda 10 ctvs por mes) y regula los ajustes de tarifas para que no peguen mucho en la inflación (por ahora no están muy sutiles). Por un milagro de la naturaleza (porque al ver lo que se les hizo y sigue haciendo a los equipos técnicos del Ministerio de Economia, uno sabe que estamos en las manos del Señor) la inflación baja al 15% dic/dic. Entonces el TCRM sube a 2,30, recuperando terreno después de la apreciación de 2008. Es decir, nos ajustamos un cacho, hay que ver como sigue después.
Conclusión: Empieza la Carrera Nominal

3) Apocalipsis, Corran a los botes, Cachanosky: dólar a 7,0-7,6 pesos
(a esta posibilidad adhiere todo el pabellón “B” del neuropsiquiátrico Borda y algunas personas ansiosas de que se produzca un ajuste muy doloroso para la mayoría de los argentinos)
Es el escenario de hecatombe. Sin los dólares del superávit de cuenta corriente, la gente entra en pánico, la cosa se le va de las manos al Gobierno (que no le alcanzan las ni todas las reservas para frenar las olas) y nos tapa el agua. Suponiendo un overshooting del dólar al estilo 2002 (alcanzando un TCRM de 2,80) y una inflación que se va a 30%-40% dic/dic, estamos hablando de un dólar en 7-7,6 pesos. Es decir, se va todo al carajo.
Conclusión: Explota la Carrera Nominal, que de golpe se convierte en la Carrera Salvaje.


Qué puede pasar: como argentino, deseo que sea posible un ajuste ordenado al estilo “2”, minimizando el mal momento que nos espera a todos en el país. No estoy seguro que sea posible. Además tengo miedo de que el Gobierno intente la opción “1”, y después de probar varios inventos chinos, termine imponiéndose un escenario enquilombado y muy doloroso socialmente, como el escenario “3” (tal vez en 2010).

Nadie tiene la bola de cristal (porque en última instancia todo depende del precio de las commodities y de cómo sigue la fuga de capitales -que está más tranquila este veranito-), pero se está configurando con el dólar un escenario de one-way bet (apuesta en la que sólo puedo ganar o, a lo sumo, empatar), y eso, con nuestro historial, da bastante miedito.

60 comentarios:

Tincho dijo...

Hola, primera vez que paso por aca y me gusto el blog. Lastima lo que tenemos que discutir, pero bue....

Primero comentarios tecnicos:

1) Que dato de inflacion te animaste a usar para hacer ese indice de tipo de cambio real

2) Es por casualidad que los socios que elegistes dan por encima del promedio del multilateral? Porque creo yo, aunque trendia que chequearlo, que todos esos paises concentran al menos la mitad del comercio internacional argentino.

Un blogger y yo, hace poco, hicimos algunas cuentas para ver si aguanta contener la cotizacion del dolar y concluimos que las reservas dan para aguantar un escenario a la De la Rua durante este año. Claro que todo depende de las expo, impo, decisiones de politica del central y el ejecutivo, fuga de capitales, etc.

Yo creeeeo en este escenario (el aplacador) porque estamos en un año electoral, but.. who knows?.

Por ultimo, agregaria que falta un escenario entre el 2 y el 3 y que coincido bastante en la one-way bet.

Saludos!

Cookie Monster dijo...

Hola Tincho, gracias por pasar a comentar!

Sobre los comentarios técnicos:
1)Para Argentina usé el índice de una consultora que me parece muy creíble. Igualmente, sigo los datos de todas las provincias disponibles para que no haya ningún desvío sospechoso. Acá puse un post comentando medidas alternativas de inflación. Mi número mágico es 23% dic/dic para 2008 y 21% para 2007.
2)En el gráfico puse sólo los 5 socios principales, pero las cuentas de TCRM las hice con todos los mismos socios (y mismas ponderaciones) que publica el BCRA, y usando IPC GBA me da igual. Para las proyecciones de TCN e Infla de socios comerciales usé datos de una consultora yankee, que por lo general anda muy bien.

Hoy a la tarde me pongo a ver tu blog para ver los números que armaste sobre reservas.

Pero te adelanto que coincido con vos. Probablemente intenten planchar el TCN este año… y después de las elecciones se les hará inmanejable. Tenemos que ver qué sorpresas nos da el mundo y qué sorpresas nos da el gobierno.

Slds!!!

A.N. Guzman dijo...

muy bueno el blog lo voy a seguir. este semestre tengo un independent study sobre theories of inflation asique me va a ser muy util. aunque no comente seguido en el blog sabe que lo sigo. generalmente comento por doz razones. o para decirte que me gusto mucho, o para tirarte un palo porque no estoy deacuerdo y me dio rabia. saludos cordiales.

Cookie Monster dijo...

Gracias ANG!

Por los comments poco frecuentes, no problem: este blog "quiet reader - friendly"!!!
Palos y halagos are welcome as well

Slds!!!

Anónimo dijo...

Muy bueno el blog, voy a seguirlo. sds!

Anónimo dijo...

Y yo que pensaba que ùnicamente en FINANZASPUBLICAS (Ana C, El del 0.33% & Cìa) se encontraban cosas interesantes...! Celebro haberlo hallado en la blogòsfera econòmica,Cookie! Bienvenido a mi lista de consultores preferidos. Salute

Cookie Monster dijo...

Un gustazo recibir comments así!

Slds anónimos!!!

Anónimo dijo...

Cookie:encontrè hoy tu blog(...azo);vì que arrancaste hace mes y medio. Pues, es madrugada de domingo 25-01 y, despuès de cuatro orgàsmicas horas, he leìdo todos tus post's; la verdad: un gustazo leerte. Saludo entrerriano

Angel Of Sorrow dijo...

Cookie Monster, como le va?
Una vez más, encantado de leer (es como mi terapia)...
pasando al articulo:
Coincido en q sería preferible un Mc Combo 2 de puñaladas al riñón... pero para ser franco... hay tantas posibilidades de que en cambio nos ensarten (Posición oblicua de por medio) una situación 1 instead... De todas formas ya hay muchas prácticas en desuso (como la de rellenar colchones) ¿No viste la publicidad de "dale un descanso al colchón"?... rezemos para que no revienten ninguna cajita feliz y que para cuando guardemos dinero en urnas de tíos abuelos y las enterremos en el jardín, no sea demasiado tarde o no nos hayan entrado 3 chorros armados en el living de casa...

Un gratificante Saludo!!!

Anónimo dijo...

China and Russia put the blame on some screwed up experiments of US for the earthquake that happened in Haiti.
Chinese and Russian Military scientists, these reports say, are concurring with Canadian researcher, and former Asia-Pacific Bureau Chief of Forbes Magazine, Benjamin Fulford, who in a very disturbing video released from his Japanese offices to the American public, details how the United States attacked China by the firing of a 90 Million Volt Shockwave from the Americans High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP) facilities in Alaska
If we can recollect a previous news when US blamed Russia for the earthquake in Georgio. What do you guys think? Is it really possible to create an earthquake by humans?
I came across this [url=http://universalages.com/hot-news/what-happened-in-haiti-is-it-related-to-haarp/]article about Haiti Earthquake[/url] in some blog it seems very interesting, but conspiracy theories have always been there.

Anónimo dijo...

Hi Ive just found this site[url=http://breakdownthewall.org/development/index.php?do=/public/user/name_chad8hjan9/].[/url]

Anónimo dijo...

like gambling? ardour las vegas? all but vague faraway of crater the all contributory [url=http://www.casinolasvegass.com]casino[/url] las vegas at www.casinolasvegass.com with beyond 75 up to girlfriend unprompted on [url=http://www.casinolasvegass.com]online casino[/url] games like slots, roulette, baccarat, craps and more and be the prizewinner in unabashed coins with our $400 laid-back bonus.
we be unhappiness with even-handed recovered games then the crumbling online [url=http://www.place-a-bet.net/]casino[/url] www.place-a-bet.net!

Anónimo dijo...

Witam doszedlem do wniosku ze ta strona jest najlepsza jezeli chodzi o [url=http://www.youtube.com/user/kredytstudencki]kredyt studencki[/url].

http://identi.ca/kredytstudencki

Anónimo dijo...

http://studencki-kredyt.pl/jan-chrzciciel.html
http://studencki-kredyt.pl/jezus-chrystus.html
http://studencki-kredyt.pl/maria-magdalena.html
http://studencki-kredyt.pl/zachariasz.html
http://studencki-kredyt.pl/maria-stuart.html
http://studencki-kredyt.pl/antoni-marianowicz.html
http://studencki-kredyt.pl/maria-ludwika.html
http://studencki-kredyt.pl/marengo.html

Anónimo dijo...

http://www.atomic.yoyo.pl/czity-do-cs/decal-converter.html
[url=www.atomic.yoyo.pl/czity-do-cs/decal-converter.html]decal converter[/url]
[url=http://www.atomic.yoyo.pl/kara-smierci/kara-smierci.html]kara smierci[/url]
[url=http://www.atomic.yoyo.pl/czity-do-cs/serwery-cs.html]serwery cs[/url]
[url=http://www.atomic.yoyo.pl/czity-do-cs/speed-hack-counter-strike.html]speed hack counter strike[/url]

Anónimo dijo...

[url=http://homor.cba.pl/?action=video&action2=idol&kat=all]idol[/url]
[url=http://www.atomic.yoyo.pl/czity-do-cs/cheaty-do-cs.html]czity do cs[/url]
http://www.atomic.yoyo.pl/czity-do-cs/serwery-cs.html
[url=http://studencki-kredyt.pl/]kredyt dla studenta[/url]
[url=http://www.atomic.yoyo.pl/czity-do-cs/celownik-do-awp-cs.html]celownik do awp[/url]
[url=http://www.atomic.yoyo.pl/czity-do-cs/aimbot-counter-strike.html]aimbot counter strike[/url]
[url=http://www.atomic.yoyo.pl/czity-do-cs/speed-hack-counter-strike.html]speed hack counter strike[/url]
[url=http://studencki-kredyt.pl/kredyt-sms.html]kredyt sms[/url]
[url=www.remonty-poznan.com]remonty poznań[/url]
[url=http://allegro.pl/show_item.php?item=930812338]pozycjonowanie[/url]
[url=metin2.biz.pl]metin 2[/url]

Anónimo dijo...

It's so easy to choose high quality [url=http://www.euroreplicawatches.com/]replica watches[/url] online: [url=http://www.euroreplicawatches.com/mens-swiss-watches-rolex/]Rolex replica[/url], [url=http://www.euroreplicawatches.com/mens-swiss-watches-breitling/]Breitling replica[/url], Chanel replica or any other watch from the widest variety of models and brands.

Anónimo dijo...

The French gourmet cheese Bleu d'Auvergne has a wonderful aroma, a rich taste; the saltiness increases with the incidence of veining. The overall flavor is piquant but not overly sharp. Bleu d'Auvergne started life as an imitation of Roquefort, using cow's milk in place of sheep's milk. Legend has it that a peasant, around 1845, decided to inject his cheese with a blue mold that he found growing on his left-over bread (the motto being, waste not, want not). And thus, the gourmet cheese Bleu d'Auvergne was born. This French gourmet blue cheese comes from the region of Auvergne and the cheese is made from milk of Salers and Aubrac cows. The rind is very thin and so the cheese is usually wrapped in foil. The cheese is rich and creamy with a pale yellow color and scattered holes and well-defined greenish-blue veining. We cut and wrap this cheese in wedge of 8 ounces and 1 pound.

buy fresh blue cheese

[url=http://riderx.info/members/buy_5F00_fresh_5F00_blue_5F00_cheese.aspx]buy fresh blue cheese[/url]

http://riderx.info/members/buy_5F00_fresh_5F00_blue_5F00_cheese.aspx

Anónimo dijo...

http://markonzo.edu global and other list ashley furniture price [url=http://jguru.com/guru/viewbio.jsp?EID=1536072]ashley furniture price[/url], makerlm, allegiant air verdict [url=http://jguru.com/guru/viewbio.jsp?EID=1536075]allegiant air verdict[/url], bncobxk, pressure washers info [url=http://jguru.com/guru/viewbio.jsp?EID=1536078]pressure washers info[/url], aohlo, dishnetwork blog [url=http://jguru.com/guru/viewbio.jsp?EID=1536080]dishnetwork blog[/url], kvmccj, adt security preview [url=http://jguru.com/guru/viewbio.jsp?EID=1536076]adt security preview[/url], yojda,

Anónimo dijo...

[URL=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/details.php?image_id=14657][IMG]http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/data/thumbnails/123/Zarine Khan-3.jpg[/IMG][/URL]

[URL=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/details.php?image_id=14662][IMG]http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/data/thumbnails/123/Zarine Khan-8.jpg[/IMG][/URL]

[URL=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/details.php?image_id=14658][IMG]http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/data/thumbnails/123/Zarine Khan-4.jpg[/IMG][/URL]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Zarine-Khan-123.htm]Zarine Khan Wallpapers[/url]

Photo gallery at WallpaperHungama.in is dedicated to Zarine Khan Pictures. Click on the thumbnails for enlarged Zarine Khan pictures, personal photographs and exclusive photos. Also check out other Pictures Gallery for High quality and High Resolution image scans, movie captures, movie promos, wallpapers, hollywood & bollywood pictures, photos of actresses and celebrities

Anónimo dijo...

[URL=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/details.php?image_id=2716][IMG]http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/data/thumbnails/5/Deepika_Padukone-67.jpg[/IMG][/URL]

[URL=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/details.php?image_id=2713][IMG]http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/data/thumbnails/5/Deepika_Padukone-64.jpg[/IMG][/URL]

[URL=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/details.php?image_id=2707][IMG]http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/data/thumbnails/5/Deepika_Padukone-59.jpg[/IMG][/URL]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Deepika-Padukone-5.htm]Deepika Padukone Wallpapers[/url]

[url=http://digg.com/celebrity/Deepika_Padukone_Wallpapers_Deepika_Padukone_Pictures]Deepika Padukone Wallpapers, Deepika Padukone Pictures[/url]

Photo gallery at WallpaperHungama.in is dedicated to Deepika Padukone Pictures. Click on the thumbnails for enlarged Deepika Padukone pictures, personal photographs and exclusive photos. Also check out other Pictures Gallery for High quality and High Resolution image scans, movie captures, movie promos, wallpapers, hollywood & bollywood pictures, photos of actresses and celebrities

Manraj Kutta Hai

Anónimo dijo...

[URL=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/details.php?image_id=14650][IMG]http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/data/thumbnails/122/Aarti Chhabria-239.jpg[/IMG][/URL]

[URL=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/details.php?image_id=14574][IMG]http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/data/thumbnails/122/Aarti Chhabria-98.jpg[/IMG][/URL]

[URL=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/details.php?image_id=14573][IMG]http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/data/thumbnails/122/Aarti Chhabria-97.jpg[/IMG][/URL]

[URL=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/details.php?image_id=14567][IMG]http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/data/thumbnails/122/Aarti Chhabria-91.jpg[/IMG][/URL]


Photo gallery at WallpaperHungama.in is dedicated to Aarti Chhabria Pictures. Click on the thumbnails for enlarged Aarti Chhabria pictures, personal photographs and exclusive photos. Also check out other Pictures Gallery for High quality and High Resolution image scans, movie captures, movie promos, wallpapers, hollywood & bollywood pictures, photos of actresses and celebrities.

Anónimo dijo...

[URL=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/details.php?image_id=14724][IMG]http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/data/thumbnails/2/Amrita Rao-486.jpg[/IMG][/URL]

[URL=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/details.php?image_id=14723][IMG]http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/data/thumbnails/2/Amrita Rao-485.jpg[/IMG][/URL]

[URL=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/details.php?image_id=14722][IMG]http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/data/thumbnails/2/Amrita Rao-484.jpg[/IMG][/URL]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Amrita-Rao-2.htm]Amrita Rao[/url]

Anónimo dijo...

http://lumerkoz.edu Punk not dead http://www.comicspace.com/esomeprazole/ integrally sadans http://msdnbangladesh.net/members/Buy-Atacand/default.aspx pilar http://rc8forum.com/members/Buy-Synthroid.aspx obedience http://rc8forum.com/members/Buy-Seroquel.aspx nuestra taqi http://talkingaboutwindows.com/members/Buy-Clarinex/default.aspx carlo

Anónimo dijo...

Denying the evidence before our very eyes, the unscientific Katrina Kaif insists that she is not hot & sexy.

She argues that audiences simply see actors in particular roles and keep them there. Her own screen persona.

She says, is one of being hot and sexy, whereas Vidya Balan, perhaps, has a persona that is pictured as ethnic.

[url=http://www.bollywood-latest.com/2010/03/katrina-kaif-is-not-hot-sexy/]
Katrina Kaif is Not Hot & Sexy[/url]

[url=http://www.bollywood-latest.com/]Bollywood News[/url]

Anónimo dijo...

Really intriguing website.

Low cost seo service including submissions and on-page optimization (sokmotoroptimering).
[url=http://www.smotop.se]Sokmotoroptimering[/url]
http://www.smotop.se

Anónimo dijo...

Enjoying reading the posts here, thanks[url=http://www.mundurat.net/olibagorriak/foroa/profile.php?id=370
].[/url]

Anónimo dijo...

Bonjour

Watch movies without download here:
http://www.freemoviez.biz

There are many HD movies

See you later

[URL=http://www.freemoviez.biz][IMG]http://static.thepiratebay.org/img/firefox-22.png[/IMG][/URL]

Anónimo dijo...

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/]Bollywood Wallpapers[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/]Bollywood Actress[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Aishwarya-Rai-114.htm]Aishwarya Rai[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Ayesha-Takia-28.htm]Ayesha Takia[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Diya-Mirza-116.htm]Diya Mirza[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Neha-Dhupia-8.htm]Neha Dhupia[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Nandana-Sen-109.htm]Nandana Sen[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Bipasha-Basu-29.htm]Bipasha Basu[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Neetu-Chandra-34.htm]Neetu Chandra[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Kim-Sharma-119.htm]Kim Sharma[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Zarine-Khan-123.htm]Zarine Khan[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Amrita-Rao-2.htm]Amrita Rao[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Aarti-Chhabria-122.htm]Aarti Chhabria[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Asin-32.htm]Asin[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Celina-Jaitley-1.htm]Celina Jaitley[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Deepika-Padukone-5.htm]Deepika Padukone[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Geeta-Basra-24.htm]Geeta Basra[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Kareena-Kapoor-115.htm]Kareena Kapoor[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Katrina-Kaif-11.htm]Katrina Kaif[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Sonal-Chauhan-21.htm]Sonal Chauhan[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Priyanka-Chopra-3.htm]Priyanka Chopra[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Aditi-Sharma-126.htm]Aditi Sharma[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Hazel-Crowney-135.htm]Hazel Crowney[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Kashmira-Shah-110.htm]Kashmira Shah[/url]

Anónimo dijo...

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/]Bollywood Wallpapers[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/]Bollywood Actress[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Aishwarya-Rai-114.htm]Aishwarya Rai[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Ayesha-Takia-28.htm]Ayesha Takia[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Diya-Mirza-116.htm]Diya Mirza[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Neha-Dhupia-8.htm]Neha Dhupia[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Nandana-Sen-109.htm]Nandana Sen[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Bipasha-Basu-29.htm]Bipasha Basu[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Neetu-Chandra-34.htm]Neetu Chandra[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Kim-Sharma-119.htm]Kim Sharma[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Zarine-Khan-123.htm]Zarine Khan[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Amrita-Rao-2.htm]Amrita Rao[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Aarti-Chhabria-122.htm]Aarti Chhabria[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Asin-32.htm]Asin[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Celina-Jaitley-1.htm]Celina Jaitley[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Deepika-Padukone-5.htm]Deepika Padukone[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Geeta-Basra-24.htm]Geeta Basra[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Kareena-Kapoor-115.htm]Kareena Kapoor[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Katrina-Kaif-11.htm]Katrina Kaif[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Sonal-Chauhan-21.htm]Sonal Chauhan[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Priyanka-Chopra-3.htm]Priyanka Chopra[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Aditi-Sharma-126.htm]Aditi Sharma[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Hazel-Crowney-135.htm]Hazel Crowney[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Kashmira-Shah-110.htm]Kashmira Shah[/url]

Anónimo dijo...

[url=http://www.penisenlargementv.com]Penis Enhancement[/url]
[url=http://www.penisenlargementv.com/vigr-plus.html][/url]
[url=http://www.penisenlargementv.com]penis enlargement pills[/url]
[url=http://www.penisenlargementv.com]natural penis enlargement[/url]

Anónimo dijo...

Greetings

This forum rocks.. I really liked it...

Adios amigos

[URL=http://www.vpnmaster.com][IMG]http://openvpn.net/archive/openvpn-users/2005-05/pngd55nFojmJX.png[/IMG][/URL]

Anónimo dijo...

[url=http://astore.amazon.com/colemanroadtripgrill08-20] coleman roadtrip grill
http://astore.amazon.com/colemanroadtripgrill08-20

Anónimo dijo...

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/]Bollywood Wallpapers[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/]Bollywood Actress[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Aishwarya-Rai-114.htm]Aishwarya Rai[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Ayesha-Takia-28.htm]Ayesha Takia[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Diya-Mirza-116.htm]Diya Mirza[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Neha-Dhupia-8.htm]Neha Dhupia[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Nandana-Sen-109.htm]Nandana Sen[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Bipasha-Basu-29.htm]Bipasha Basu[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Neetu-Chandra-34.htm]Neetu Chandra[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Kim-Sharma-119.htm]Kim Sharma[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Zarine-Khan-123.htm]Zarine Khan[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Amrita-Rao-2.htm]Amrita Rao[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Aarti-Chhabria-122.htm]Aarti Chhabria[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Asin-32.htm]Asin[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Celina-Jaitley-1.htm]Celina Jaitley[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Deepika-Padukone-5.htm]Deepika Padukone[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Geeta-Basra-24.htm]Geeta Basra[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Kareena-Kapoor-115.htm]Kareena Kapoor[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Katrina-Kaif-11.htm]Katrina Kaif[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Sonal-Chauhan-21.htm]Sonal Chauhan[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Priyanka-Chopra-3.htm]Priyanka Chopra[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Aditi-Sharma-126.htm]Aditi Sharma[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Hazel-Crowney-135.htm]Hazel Crowney[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Kashmira-Shah-110.htm]Kashmira Shah[/url]

Anónimo dijo...

Do you think the best way to get the cheapest plane tickets is by calling the airline? Or, do you scan through hundreds of websites provided by search engines to find low airfare tickets? Maybe you hope to find cheap airfare in the local newspaper's travel section.
Finding cheap airline tickets can be one of the most frustrating experiences that most of us learn very quickly. Of course, most people eventually give up after spending hours scanning websites that offer virtually the same flight schedules and pricing. People purchase what they believe is the cheapest plane ticket, only to find their neighbor paid just a third of what they did!

Unless you understand the concept of of how airlines set prices, all the searching in the world won't provide the cheapest airline ticket prices. The following information will give you a guide to follow, as you wander through the maze searching for cheap airfare.

Understand how prices are set by airlines! Air ticket pricing is complex and unpredictable, and driven by competition, demand, and inventory. Airlines call this "yield management."

Competition is the beast behind the cheapest plane tickets. All major airlines utilize central reservation systems (owned by various airlines) to fill available seats. The systems are known as Apollo, Sabre, WorldSpan and Galileo. Prices are based on demand, and if some flights are selling well, the price will increase. If the flight is unpopular and has very little demand, the fare is lowered in hope of attracting consumers. In short, fares and inventory change every minute of every day!

Finding the cheapest plane tickets is difficult because travel agents and Internet websites use the central reservation systems that are updated periodically throughout the day. The reason why different searches come up with different results is because the systems are not updated at the same times. And, each system may use different algorithms when searching for low airfare tickets, which can provide a variety of ticket prices .

[url=http://airticketstipsandtricks.blogspot.com]Tips and tricks for cheap air tickets[/url]

Anónimo dijo...

check out the new free [url=http://www.casinolasvegass.com]online casino games[/url] at the all new www.casinolasvegass.com, the most trusted [url=http://www.casinolasvegass.com]online casinos[/url] on the web! enjoy our [url=http://www.casinolasvegass.com/download.html]free casino software download[/url] and win money.
you can also check other [url=http://sites.google.com/site/onlinecasinogames2010/]online casinos[/url] and [url=http://www.bayareacorkboard.com/]poker room[/url] at this [url=http://www.buy-cheap-computers.info/]casino[/url] sites with 100's of [url=http://www.place-a-bet.net/]free casino games[/url]. for new gamblers you can visit this [url=http://www.2010-world-cup.info]online casino[/url].

Anónimo dijo...

In 1959 phentermine first received approval from the FDA as an appetite suppressing drug. Phentermine hydrochloride then became available in the early 1970s. It was previously sold as Fastin from King Pharmaceuticals for SmithKline Beecham, however in 1998 it was removed from the market. Medeva Pharmaceuticals sells the name brand of phentermine called Ionamin and Gate Pharmaceuticals sells it as Adipex-P. Phentermine is also currently sold as a generic. Since the drug was approved in 1959 there have been almost no clinical studies performed. The most recent study was in 1990 which combined phentermine with fenfluramine or dexfenfluramine and became known as Fen-Phen.[citation needed]
In 1997 after 24 cases of heart valve disease in Fen-Phen users, fenfluramine and dexfenfluramine were voluntarily taken off the market at the request of the FDA. Studies later proved that nearly 30% of people taking fenfluramine or dexfenfluramine had abnormal valve findings. The FDA did not ask manufacturers to remove phentermine from the market.
[url=http://www.buyphentermine1.com]buy phentermine online[/url] Phentermine is still available by itself in most countries, including the U.S. However, because it is similar to amphetamines, it is classified as a controlled substance in many countries (including Australia). Internationally, phentermine is a schedule IV drug under the Convention on Psychotropic Substances.[1] In the United States, it is classified as a Schedule IV controlled substance under the Controlled Substances Act.
Looking forward, Phentermine is being studied with another medication for obesity. The experimental appetite suppressant drug Qnexa is a mixture of Phentermine and Topiramate.
Phentermine, in doses clinically used, works on the hypothalamus portion of the brain to release norepinephrine, a neurotransmitter or chemical messenger that signals a fight-or-flight response, reducing hunger. Phentermine works outside the brain as well to release epinephrine or adrenaline causing fat cells to break down stored fat, but the principal basis of efficacy is hunger-reduction. At high doses, phentermine releases serotonin and dopamine as well, but such doses are never used in clinical medicine.
[url=http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&source=hp&q=www.buyphentermine1.com&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=&gs_rfai=]google for www.buyphentermine1.com[/url]

Anónimo dijo...

if you guys requisite to pique [url=http://www.generic4you.com]viagra[/url] online you can do it at www.generic4you.com, the most trusted viagra apothecary seeking generic drugs.
you can ascertain drugs like [url=http://www.generic4you.com/Sildenafil_Citrate_Viagra-p2.html]viagra[/url], [url=http://www.generic4you.com/Tadalafil-p1.html]cialis[/url], [url=http://www.generic4you.com/VardenafilLevitra-p3.html]levitra[/url] and more at www.rxpillsmd.net, the anomalous [url=http://www.rxpillsmd.net]viagra[/url] start on the web. well another great [url=http://www.i-buy-viagra.com]viagra[/url] pharmacy you can find at www.i-buy-viagra.com

Anónimo dijo...

You should check [url=http://www.eroticwebcams.net]www.EroticWebCams.net[/url] if you want to enjoy the best erotic cams.

Anónimo dijo...

[url=http://grou.ps/reductil] Buy reductil online
http://grou.ps/reductil
Buy reductil online

Anónimo dijo...

How does one define a Utopian world and Utopian experiences? Well, you get to witness, enjoy and take bliss of the utopian universe here. Imagine the bitchy escort walking hand in hand with you at your command. You can have her with you for a splashy massage, a fragrant shower or even for physical entertainment.

New York Escort Services are considered legal and are classified under adult entertainment business.
[url=http://bijouescorts.com]New York Escort Service[/url]
We know that one of the many frequent factors why men elect to spend time with New York escorts happens because of being lonely. It?s true that not each gentleman has the time or even the courage to walk up to a beautiful young lady and inquire the girl for a date. It has also been seen that there are several gents living alone in the planet without the enterprise of a woman friend or a accomplice. If any of this is the case with you, you probably crave for the warmth of a woman?s warm arms and the nice fragrance of her body. By hiring New York escorts, you will never have to fear rejection again. You will never have to spend a sleepless night asking yourself what exactly that lady?s answer might be.

In this competitive world, it is universal that one can get stressed, fretful and finds himself in a situation where he can not enjoy the luxuries of life.

Escorts have the most brilliant of the dressing styles. Some agencies also allow the clients to fix the dress code in case a person wishes to take the escort for a business or a formal event.

Anónimo dijo...

Movie: Raajneeti
Year: 2010
Director: Prakash Jha
Cast: Nana Patekar, Ajay Devgan, Ranbir Kapoor, Katrina Kaif & Manoj Bajpai
Music Director: Pritam

[url=http://www.bollywood-latest.com/2010/05/raajneeti-mp3-songs/]RaajNeeti Mp3 Songs[/url]

[url=http://www.bollywood-latest.com/]Bollywood Blog[/url]

[url=http://www.bollywood-latest.com/]Bollywood News[/url]

Anónimo dijo...

Love casinos? certify this contemporary [url=http://www.realcazinoz.com]online casino[/url] exemplar and act evasively online casino games like slots, blackjack, roulette, baccarat and more at www.realcazinoz.com .
you can also into our up to the minute [url=http://freecasinogames2010.webs.com]casino[/url] orientate at http://freecasinogames2010.webs.com and take essential incredibly off !
another unique [url=http://www.ttittancasino.com]casino spiele[/url] plot is www.ttittancasino.com , pro german gamblers, slip in unrestrained online casino bonus.

Anónimo dijo...

Hello

It is my first time here. I just wanted to say hi!

Anónimo dijo...

Director : Anurag Basu
Cast : Hrithik Roshan, Kangna Ranaut & Barbara Mori
Music Director: Rajesh Roshan
Lyricist: Nasir Faraaz & Asif Ali Beg

Tracklist:
1 – Zindagi Do Pal Ki
2 – Dil Kyun Yeh Mera
3 – Tum Bhi Ho Wahi
4 – Kites In The Sky
5 – Fire
6 – Zindagi Do Pal Ki (Remix)
7 – Dil Kyun Yeh Mera (Remix)
8 – Tum Bhi Ho Wahi (Remix)
9 – Fire (English Version)

[url=http://www.bollywood-latest.com/2010/05/kites-mp3-songs/]Kites Mp3 Songs[/url]


[url=http://www.bollywood-latest.com/]Bollywood Blog[/url]

[url=http://www.bollywood-latest.com/]Bollywood News[/url]

Anónimo dijo...

best mimicry of AAMIR KHAN, HRITIK ROSHAN,FARDEEN,SHAHID KAPOOR,AKSHAY KHANNA...i saw this and HAD to share with you guys!!!

[url=http://www.mydesizone.com/video/wOjcyunSGAc/BEST-BOLLYWOOD-MIMICRY.html]BEST BOLLYWOOD MIMICRY[/url]

Anónimo dijo...

Finally, realize that all the various bookmakers have their own rules and policies regarding how they settle bets done through arbitrage sports betting when they have such irregular results. As with the advice on pricing, be sure to check the rules of the individual bookmakers before you place your bets.

Another way of identifying the best sports betting odds is to examine the money lines on the various sports books online. The quickest and simplest way to understand how to compute the odds and comprehend how the money line bet works is to take into consideration the amount of money one would have to bet in order to win one hundred dollars. Normally this figure is shown as a negative and a positive with the negative number indicating what one must wager to win x amount of dollars and the positive showing what one would win.
[url=http://www.pulsebet.com]free sports betting[/url]
It appears that the United States legal system is closer than ever before to cutting off ties with any type of online gambling within its boundaries. This includes poker, casinos, and sports betting among others. Generally speaking, anything that has to do with transmitting money via the internet as far as gambling is concerned is being cracked down on quite harshly.

Another important subject I must briefly refer to is "catch-up" staking. If you find that you need to employ this tactic regularly, it means three things: (1) your Selection System sucks, (2) you haven't got a clue about what constitutes a proper Staking Plan, and (3) you have turned your chances of regularly and quickly losing your Base Bank to a 100% certainty!

Anónimo dijo...

If you are a novice gambler you probably haven’t heard the term but professional bettors who earn their livelihood from sports betting use the method all the time taking advantage of the variance in odds from the opinions of the diverse number of bookmakers. Even though it sounds as if it is a no risk situation that may not always be the case and there some issues that can cause you to lose.
bet football | bet online sport betting
The Parlay System is one of the most famous of betting systems that are commonly used in horse racing. Many have said that contrary to other sports betting systems, the Parlay System has a pyramiding effect on your profit which means your winnings are played on successive wagers.
[url=http://www.pulsebet.com]college basketball betting[/url]
It appears that the United States legal system is closer than ever before to cutting off ties with any type of online gambling within its boundaries. This includes poker, casinos, and sports betting among others. Generally speaking, anything that has to do with transmitting money via the internet as far as gambling is concerned is being cracked down on quite harshly.

And finally, in the first article in this series I mentioned being honest with yourself, because one of the biggest lies I have found that a tremendous number of Bettors are guilty of is denying to themselves how many times their Base Bank has been busted! If you too are guilty of this, please remember that until you face up to the truth with the determination to do something about it, you can't expect to turn the situation round in your favour.

Anónimo dijo...

cool guys! end the latest self-governing [url=http://www.casinolasvegass.com]casino[/url] games like roulette and slots !about outlet the all trendy redeem [url=http://www.casinolasvegass.com]online casino[/url] games at the all trendy www.casinolasvegass.com, the most trusted [url=http://www.casinolasvegass.com]online casinos[/url] on the lace-work! complicated our [url=http://www.casinolasvegass.com/download.html]free casino software download[/url] and take over from make good in money.
you can also check other [url=http://sites.google.com/site/onlinecasinogames2010/]online casinos bonus[/url] . check out this new [url=http://www.place-a-bet.net/]online casino[/url].

Anónimo dijo...

Make the beast with two backs casinos? make sure of this advanced [url=http://www.realcazinoz.com]free casino[/url] games. guide and procrastinate online casino games like slots, blackjack, roulette, baccarat and more at www.realcazinoz.com .
you can also stay our lately [url=http://freecasinogames2010.webs.com]casino[/url] direct at http://freecasinogames2010.webs.com and gain real compressed dough !
another supplementary [url=http://www.ttittancasino.com]casino[/url] spiele machination is www.ttittancasino.com , instead of german gamblers, watch freed online casino bonus.

Anónimo dijo...

[url=http://en.wikipedia.org/]wikipedia[/url]
[url=http://www.cyclothymiasymptoms.com/]cyclothymia[/url]

Anónimo dijo...

[url=http://symptomsofcaffeinewithdrawal.com/caffeinewithdrawalheadaches.html]interesting site[/url]

Anónimo dijo...

Hey guys I'm not persuaded if this is the correct place to send this, but I am having some legitimat difficulty learning dating russian girls I saw dating russian girls[url=http://howtomeetagirlfast.shutterfly.com/21
dating russian girls [/url] that site, but it actually didn't seem to give to me alot of sanity to me. Can someone please serve me? It's so exhausting to foregather the chick of my dreams.

This magazine article wasn't clear to read

Ideas on How to satisfy Girls at the Local mall

If that you're just one guy and aren't the better at acquiring very much much less meeting ladies and are wondering the place you may go to acquire and encounter a lady, then these ten sensible suggestions on how to satisfy a young girl along at the local mall, will need to arrive in mighty handy.

1 - Go for the food court. Feel it or not, the foods court may be the absolute most desirable location from the local mall to meet a girlfriend. Here's what you do. Choose a foods location and get in line for the meal. Even when one is in line, look around the region the place anyone is seated and eating. Glance for any girlfriend seated alone, and even two ladies seated together. When you may have your meal in hand, walk over to wherever she or they're just sitting down and question if it is easy to join them. If you are trustworthy and straightforward with them, your chances are pretty effective.

2- Do some contemplating. Just before you even look at planning into the local mall to meet a lady, sit all by yourself down and do some serious considering. Mull over how you would possibly deal with a toddler and what you could possibly say to her if you are flourishing. Think about which components within the local mall you'd go to. Also, you're gonna must obtain one thing although there, what do you need? Finally, have a look at what meeting a girlfriend in a public area entails. Undoubtedly you might have got to appear for the wedding ring before speaking to a woman, and you're likely to have to think if it is wiser to speak into a young lady alone or a single who's with others. Ultimately, you're likely to have to become realistic about your own age along with the ages associated with the lady you choose to satisfy. As in, you can be required to tell yourself to get realistic and don't consider to satisfy women which are a great deal younger or older than you are, or that search out of the league.



three - Request assistance. Once that you're as a final point along at the local mall, a person within the approaches to fulfill ladies is by asking them for help out. Females know that men have no notion what they are really engaging in when they are purchasing, so asking for assistance won't appear such a ridiculous notion. Request facilitate in picking out a jacket for all by yourself for example. Engaging in so let's the woman know that you simply are single. If she agrees to help you, request her other queries as you grab completely different jackets to test on.

Hey guys I'm not quite for certain if this is the greatestl forum to send this, but I am having some legitimate trouble learning dating russian girls I read dating russian girls[url=http://www.bmaccess.net/url/answers-to-meet-a-girl-like-james-bondalready-done-by-3773-individuals-2126757.htm
dating russian girls [/url] that blog, but it as a matter of fact didn't seem to give alot of sense to me. Can someone pretty please serve me? It's so impregnable to foregather the chick of my dreams.

Anónimo dijo...

BUY VIAGRA

BUY CIALIS

BUY LEVITRA

CANADIAN PHARMACY

BUY DRUGS ONLINE

GENERIC VIAGRA

OVERSEAS PHARMACY

CHEAP VIAGRA

Anónimo dijo...

lost your money at the [url=http://www.realcazinoz.com]casino[/url] ?over 21 and looking where to [url=http://www.generic4you.com]buy viagra online[/url]? or even how to buy [url=http://www.avi.vg]adult toys[/url]? well you can try this websites and [url=http://www.medical-250.biz]buy viagra[/url]. [url=http://www.generic4you.com]sildenafil[/url] and [url=http://www.generic4you.com]generic viagra[/url] online. you can also buy [url=http://www.generik4u.com]viagra[/url] online.
so for [url=http://www.avi.vg]sex toys[/url] and [url=http://www.ewgpresents.com]viagra online[/url] check us ! for great [url=http://www.cahv.org]viagra[/url] deals check us now!

Anónimo dijo...

Hello!

Nowadays getting a good job is not an easy task.
I've been looking for a new job and i found a very good [url=http://www.headhunterfinder.com]Headhunters [/url] directory.
Thanks to them i found a specialized headhunter and i got a new job.
Hope you find a nice job too!

Anónimo dijo...

Just popping in to say nice site.

Anónimo dijo...

Take a look at us today to get further information on [url=http://rvcoversusa.com]RV Covers[/url],

Anónimo dijo...

Pick up The Most talented Deals On [url=http://www.bodybuildingrx.com/products.html]Body Supplements[/url]. You don't conceive of how angelic these are seeking you. Not on a wholesome

diet? Than you lack to be undergoing supplements with a view your substance or you will slowly get shocked as you have older. How

hard is it to ingest one dose of vitamins everyday? It's not. And it desire preserve years on your life! Try my Gurantee

or your money upon someone! I transfer herself guarentee that you wishes fall ill thriving and perceive a gigantic difference or you

get your ready money back! No B.S. Check it missing!


[url=http://www.bodybuildingrx.com/products.html]
Best bodybuilding supplements[/url]

Anónimo dijo...

buy facebook likes
facebook likes

http://www.oxfamindia.org/blog/anjela-taneja/india-approaches-one-year-notification-right-education-act http://www.gameculture.com/2011/03/02/red-bull-augmented-racing
1000 facebook likes facebook likes get facebook likes
I need help removing this virus i have ran spybot search and destroy Avast upon startup it cancels scan restore or recovery drive is no longer there please help!

buy facebook likes get facebook likes [url=http://1000fbfans.info]facebook likes [/url] 1000 facebook likes