Perspectivas para el dólar en 2009

(ACLARACIÓN: La idea de este post no es hacer futurología, sino dar una orientación sobre la magnitud de los cambios que pueden venir en el dólar, dadas las dinámicas de precios internos y externos)

Con los datos de inflación de la mayoría de los países importantes, ya podemos decir que cerramos 2008 más caros que 2007: el tipo de cambio real multilateral argentino cayó a 1,80 en diciembre 2008, desde el 2,27 de Dic07. Todo esto a pesar de que el tipo de cambio nominal subió de 3,14 a 3,42 $/u$s (en términos reales, el dólar cayó de 1,61 a 1,43).

Pero todo eso ya es historia. Veamos ahora que puede pasar este año en materia cambiaria.

Los tres escenarios para diciembre 2009:

1) Aplacador, Tranquilizador, De la Rúa: dólar a 3,95 pesos
(a esta posibilidad parece que adhieren los principales bancos de Wall Street)
La idea es que el Gobierno se fuma la guita de la ANSES, quema reservas del BCRA, y extorsiona a más de uno, pero consigue que el dólar se mantenga relativamente “quieto” en un año electoral. El dólar estable y la deflación internacional nos ayudan a compensar por los ajustes de tarifas y cerramos con una inflación del 10% dic/dic. Así, el tipo de cambio real multilateral (TCRM) apenas sube de 1,80 a 1,86. Es decir, seguimos caros a pesar de la recesión, entonces nos compramos otro quilombo a futuro.
Conclusión: No empieza la Carrera Nominal => Se posterga para 2010

2) Componedor, Reordenador, la ilusión de algunos: dólar a 4,8-5,1 pesos
(a esta posibilidad adhieren varios economistas argentinos, pero prefieren no hablar públicamente)
Este es el escenario voluntarista de lo que “debería ser”. El Gobierno maneja un ajuste muy gradual del tipo de cambio (onda 10 ctvs por mes) y regula los ajustes de tarifas para que no peguen mucho en la inflación (por ahora no están muy sutiles). Por un milagro de la naturaleza (porque al ver lo que se les hizo y sigue haciendo a los equipos técnicos del Ministerio de Economia, uno sabe que estamos en las manos del Señor) la inflación baja al 15% dic/dic. Entonces el TCRM sube a 2,30, recuperando terreno después de la apreciación de 2008. Es decir, nos ajustamos un cacho, hay que ver como sigue después.
Conclusión: Empieza la Carrera Nominal

3) Apocalipsis, Corran a los botes, Cachanosky: dólar a 7,0-7,6 pesos
(a esta posibilidad adhiere todo el pabellón “B” del neuropsiquiátrico Borda y algunas personas ansiosas de que se produzca un ajuste muy doloroso para la mayoría de los argentinos)
Es el escenario de hecatombe. Sin los dólares del superávit de cuenta corriente, la gente entra en pánico, la cosa se le va de las manos al Gobierno (que no le alcanzan las ni todas las reservas para frenar las olas) y nos tapa el agua. Suponiendo un overshooting del dólar al estilo 2002 (alcanzando un TCRM de 2,80) y una inflación que se va a 30%-40% dic/dic, estamos hablando de un dólar en 7-7,6 pesos. Es decir, se va todo al carajo.
Conclusión: Explota la Carrera Nominal, que de golpe se convierte en la Carrera Salvaje.


Qué puede pasar: como argentino, deseo que sea posible un ajuste ordenado al estilo “2”, minimizando el mal momento que nos espera a todos en el país. No estoy seguro que sea posible. Además tengo miedo de que el Gobierno intente la opción “1”, y después de probar varios inventos chinos, termine imponiéndose un escenario enquilombado y muy doloroso socialmente, como el escenario “3” (tal vez en 2010).

Nadie tiene la bola de cristal (porque en última instancia todo depende del precio de las commodities y de cómo sigue la fuga de capitales -que está más tranquila este veranito-), pero se está configurando con el dólar un escenario de one-way bet (apuesta en la que sólo puedo ganar o, a lo sumo, empatar), y eso, con nuestro historial, da bastante miedito.

27 comentarios:

Tincho dijo...

Hola, primera vez que paso por aca y me gusto el blog. Lastima lo que tenemos que discutir, pero bue....

Primero comentarios tecnicos:

1) Que dato de inflacion te animaste a usar para hacer ese indice de tipo de cambio real

2) Es por casualidad que los socios que elegistes dan por encima del promedio del multilateral? Porque creo yo, aunque trendia que chequearlo, que todos esos paises concentran al menos la mitad del comercio internacional argentino.

Un blogger y yo, hace poco, hicimos algunas cuentas para ver si aguanta contener la cotizacion del dolar y concluimos que las reservas dan para aguantar un escenario a la De la Rua durante este año. Claro que todo depende de las expo, impo, decisiones de politica del central y el ejecutivo, fuga de capitales, etc.

Yo creeeeo en este escenario (el aplacador) porque estamos en un año electoral, but.. who knows?.

Por ultimo, agregaria que falta un escenario entre el 2 y el 3 y que coincido bastante en la one-way bet.

Saludos!

Cookie Monster dijo...

Hola Tincho, gracias por pasar a comentar!

Sobre los comentarios técnicos:
1)Para Argentina usé el índice de una consultora que me parece muy creíble. Igualmente, sigo los datos de todas las provincias disponibles para que no haya ningún desvío sospechoso. Acá puse un post comentando medidas alternativas de inflación. Mi número mágico es 23% dic/dic para 2008 y 21% para 2007.
2)En el gráfico puse sólo los 5 socios principales, pero las cuentas de TCRM las hice con todos los mismos socios (y mismas ponderaciones) que publica el BCRA, y usando IPC GBA me da igual. Para las proyecciones de TCN e Infla de socios comerciales usé datos de una consultora yankee, que por lo general anda muy bien.

Hoy a la tarde me pongo a ver tu blog para ver los números que armaste sobre reservas.

Pero te adelanto que coincido con vos. Probablemente intenten planchar el TCN este año… y después de las elecciones se les hará inmanejable. Tenemos que ver qué sorpresas nos da el mundo y qué sorpresas nos da el gobierno.

Slds!!!

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muy bueno el blog lo voy a seguir. este semestre tengo un independent study sobre theories of inflation asique me va a ser muy util. aunque no comente seguido en el blog sabe que lo sigo. generalmente comento por doz razones. o para decirte que me gusto mucho, o para tirarte un palo porque no estoy deacuerdo y me dio rabia. saludos cordiales.

Cookie Monster dijo...

Gracias ANG!

Por los comments poco frecuentes, no problem: este blog "quiet reader - friendly"!!!
Palos y halagos are welcome as well

Slds!!!

Anónimo dijo...

Muy bueno el blog, voy a seguirlo. sds!

Anónimo dijo...

Y yo que pensaba que ùnicamente en FINANZASPUBLICAS (Ana C, El del 0.33% & Cìa) se encontraban cosas interesantes...! Celebro haberlo hallado en la blogòsfera econòmica,Cookie! Bienvenido a mi lista de consultores preferidos. Salute

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Un gustazo recibir comments así!

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pasando al articulo:
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